BeamVibe

When teams sign players to long-term, big-money contracts, the last few years of the deal are usually the last thing on their mind, mostly because they know it’s not going to be a pretty picture.

This is a reality the Blackhawks are currently in with a couple of their core players.

There wasn’t a lot of pushback when the Blackhawks rewarded Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane with matching eight-year, $84 million contracts back in 2014. They were key figures in turning the franchise around and winning two (soon three) Stanley Cups. Both were seen as elite players and while their $10.5 million cap hits were the highest in the league at the time, other star players received more money and higher cap hits after these contracts. There wasn’t much issue with the Blackhawks paying their stars, but there was always a huge risk attached to these two contracts.

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Both were in their late 20s when these contracts were signed, and this is the age where most players start to see their production take a decline. There have been a lot of debates over when players start to hit a wall, but recent research from Evolving Wild, Dawson Springings and others indicate most players hit their peak years in their early-to-mid 20s and start to see a decline after that. When they reach their 30s, things start to get scary. Most see their production and overall value hit a wall, and while there have been plenty of players in recent history who have bucked this trend, Father Time usually wins this battle.

For the Blackhawks duo, there are a couple of sides to this. Both Toews and Kane were seen as elite players not that long ago, so it figures they would age more gracefully and have nice careers into their 30s. While this might be true, the early signs are a mixed bag.

Kane has still produced like a first-line player in his late-20 seasons. Even without Artemi Panarin, he managed to score 2.16 points per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play last season. This puts him in company with top-line players like Phil Kessel and Mark Scheifele. Not exactly the MVP-caliber numbers we saw a couple years ago, but he’s still a top-line player and there aren’t a lot of huge concerns about Kane’s on-ice production for now.

Toews is a much different story. In his prime, Toews was nearly a point-per-game player every season and was counted on to play in every situation. While Toews’ two-way play has grown, his point production has taken a hit the past three seasons. He has produced less than two points per 60 minutes and is closer to a 55-60-point player now than the 70-point player he used to be. Last season was his worst in terms of points per game, and while there were a lot of things that went wrong for him, this decline has been going on for a few seasons now.

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When the Blackhawks signed Toews to his contract, they knew there would come a time when his production wouldn’t match up to his cap hit. They just didn’t see it happening before he turned 30. And with five years left on the contract, things can easily go south in a hurry.

Now, if Toews were to stay at the same level for the next five years, the Blackhawks can probably live with it. He won’t be providing $10.5 million in value, but a good second-liner who drives play and kills penalties is something that’s welcome on any team’s roster. The problem, of course, is we don’t know what Toews will look like in years 30 through 35. History and age curves suggest he will get worse, but some players are able to prolong their careers and stay productive into their 30s. That was certainly true with Marian Hossa, who produced for the Blackhawks well into the latter stages of his career. Can Toews follow a similar path?

There have been a lot of studies on aging curves over the past few years. While most have the same conclusion about when a player peaks, some recent work from The Athletic Buffalo’s Ryan Stimson shows an interesting find in regards to how certain types of players age. Using a 2,000-game sample of data collected from the Passing Project over the past four seasons, he found that the rate a player shoots the puck takes a sharp decline when that player hits his mid-20s, while a player’s shot-assist rate (or how often they set up a teammate for a shot) hits more of a plateau at this age. What this indicates is a forward who thrives as a playmaker might have a better chance of staying productive later in his career than one who thrives on just shooting and goal-scoring.

This is based on a limited sample, but it is an interesting observation and it makes sense in theory. You have to depend more on skill and instinct as you get older, so being able to find open teammates and getting them the puck can go a long way. There have been a few examples of this with great passers like Joe Thornton, Ray Whitney, Jaromir Jagr and Patrik Elias staying productive even after they slowed down. This is the one area where there might be some optimism for how Toews (and Kane) play for the rest of their contracts.

Toews/Kane Passing Profiles

Viz courtesy of CJ Tutoro

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This data was tracked by myself for Stimson’s Passing Project. It’s not a complete sample, but it includes over half of last season and 35 games from the previous year, which gives us a decent amount of minutes & shots to work with.

For all that went wrong with Toews last year, he was still excellent at setting up teammates, ranking as one of the top players in the league in terms of shot assists. This is something that should stay with him as he gets deeper into his 30s, so the next few years might be more of a plateau than a steep decline. The same goes for Kane, although he has a more balanced profile on offense. While this is encouraging, it does bring up some questions about Toews’ last few seasons. Like, why did his point production fall off so much if he’s such a great passer? Is it possible we’ll see a bounce-back from him next year?

Assists are always tricky to figure out because the result goes into the hands of the linemate rather than the one who made the play. Sure, there are times when a great pass will set up an easy goal, but there is an onus on the recipient of the pass to execute and finish plays off. That hasn’t been happening for Toews’ linemates as often as it used to. With Toews himself not being much of a volume shooter, assists are likely going to be how he drives results for the Blackhawks. Is this all on his linemates or are there more underlying issues at hand with him? We can use another viz from CJ Tutoro to take a closer look at Toews’ passing profile and the types of plays he is setting up.

When looking at the types of shots Toews set up last year, it’s hard to find much he’s been doing incorrectly. It’s an incomplete sample, but 50 games gives us a pretty decent picture of how Toews was creating offense last season. Toews was setting up plays from high-danger locations. He was making plays from behind the net and completing passes that crossed the middle of the slot, plays that you would expect to lead to higher-percentage shots. He was also setting up one-timers at a pretty solid rate, which are also considered a higher percentage play. The only black mark is he was passing the puck to the point quite a bit, but his profile is still pretty balanced overall and you would expect better results from him when taking all of this information into account. We can also take this a step further by looking at who Toews directly set up for a shot during 5-on-5 play in the 50 games tracked and how often it led to a goal.

Again, we’re working with an incomplete sample here, but it does show some of the problems Toews’ linemates had with finishing. Most of it stems from Brandon Saad being in a slump for basically the entire season and not having any consistency on his other wing. This is likely a reason why Toews had to settle for passing the puck back to the point so often if Saad wasn’t open. Both Vinnie Hinostroza and Alex DeBrincat showed some promise during their stints on the top line, but neither of them stuck around in this role for a long period.

So, is this all a case of linemates not finishing? We all know the type of year Saad had and most are expecting him to bounce back. Those two were attached at the hip while his other wing was a revolving door until Joel Quenneville finally decided to put Kane back on his right wing. Toews saw a slight uptick in production after that.

It does raise the question of whether or not Toews needs Kane on his wing to produce, though. The two have spent most of their time on separate lines the past three years, and while Kane has still produced at a first-line rate, it’s been a tougher go for Toews. Whether or not the Blackhawks should come to this conclusion probably depends on how they feel about Saad. Bringing him back was supposed to help keep Toews going. It didn’t work last year. Does that mean they should scrap it and load up the top line again? It’s a tough call.

The saving grace of Toews and Saad playing together is they were a dominant territorial line and the puck rarely left the offensive zone while they were on the ice. There’s value in that even if it’s not directly leading to their boxcar stats. You’d still like to see more results on the scoresheet, though, and history indicates this should happen for both of them next year. They had plenty of opportunities to create, and it’s hard to see Saad scoring on less than eight percent of his shots again. With that being said, there’s still an open spot on the right wing and Kane could slot into that vacancy if the Blackhawks see this as the only way to get the most out of Toews.

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The issue with loading up the top line is worrying about how to distribute the rest of the talent. Having one group of three dominate for 16-20 minutes a night is nice, but a little fruitless if the other three lines spend the rest of the game getting their teeth kicked in. The Blackhawks are in decent shape to construct their lineup like this, as the emergence of Nick Schmaltz and DeBrincat last year gives them some flexibility. The return of Marcus Kruger also allows them to shelter the top two lines at an extreme level if Quenneville uses his fourth line like he has in the past.

That said, there are still some questions. We don’t know if Schmaltz is good enough to drive a line without Kane on his wing, and DeBrincat had only modest results on his wing. The third and fourth lines also turn into more of “spare parts” lines than constructive units, so it’s easy to see why there might be some reluctance to do this. DeBrincat is also someone who might be able to capitalize on Toews’ playmaking and give the Blackhawks a great first line without them needing to put all their eggs in one basket.

The Blackhawks are at a tough point with Toews. He’s not the player he used to be, but there are some signs that indicate the old Toews isn’t totally gone and that he still has plenty of good years left to give. The big question is whether he needs an elite goal-scorer on his wing to put up points like he used to and if that player needs to be Kane.

The passing data suggests a lot of Toews’ problems relate to linemates simply not executing, which should improve. However, when this problem has been going on for three years, patience starts to wear a little thin and you start to wonder what Toews is without an elite player to help finish plays off. Toews will still be able to drive play and his playmaking skill should age well, it just doesn’t mean he will get back to superstar level.

Next year should be better for Toews. How much remains to be seen.

Stats courtesy of Hockey-Reference, Natural Stat Trick and data collected from The Passing Project

(Top photo: David Banks/USA TODAY Sports)

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